That’s how low the chances of getting the best players are

In FIFA 23 you also have the chance to see how high your probability is of drawing high-value cards from packs. We take a close look at your possible chances.

Every FUT player wants to improve their team with strong stars. Unfortunately, it is not so easy to get hold of them: the packs with such cards cost a lot of coins and the chances of good players are usually very small.

Alternatively, you can buy strong players on the transfer market. However, the cards with the best ratings usually cost a lot of coins. You can get good coins through clever trading or good rewards from Division Rivals, the Weekend League or other new modes in FUT. But buying top cards like Mbappé takes a lot of patience.

That’s why many players hope to get good cards faster by opening packs. But what are the chances?

Top cards slightly less likely than last year

Here are the odds: In the FUT Shop, players can take a closer look at all current packs. The probabilities of strong cards are shown – so you can see at least a little how high the chance of a card with good values ​​is.

If you now take a close look at the chances in FUT 23, you will find that the chances have gotten a little worse than at the start of FIFA 22.

Here you can see the differences:

  • Premium Gold Pack in FIFA 22 – Gold Players (84+) – 7.7% (as of 03/10/2021)
  • Premium Gold Pack in FIFA 23 – Gold Players (84+) – 7.4% (as of 09/22/2022)

So don’t expect a top card to appear in every pack. With 7.4% in FIFA 23, your chance looks a little worse than last year.

Another thing to keep in mind here is that it’s not clear what the distribution is within that 7.4%. It can be assumed that the chance of an 84 player is significantly higher than, for example, a 91.

Probabilities in the Premium Gold Pack

There is currently a Premium Gold Pack in FIFA 23. The pack costs 7,500 coins, the same as last year, but, as shown in our comparison, includes a slightly lower probability of drawing top cards. For players with an 84+ rating, you have a 7.4% chance of drawing one.

The chance of a player from the Team of the Week is currently 1.7% and is therefore also very low.

Premium Gold Pack

Probabilities in the Premium Silver Pack

This time, too, there is a premium silver pack. Here the probability of a silver player with a 74+ rating is 11%.

FIFA 23 Premium Silver Pack
Premium Silver Pack

Probabilities in the Premium Bronze Pack

Last but not least comes the Premium Bronze Pack. This pack gives you the chance to get a bronze player for a very small price. The cost is 750 coins, with a 41% chance of snagging a 64+ bronze player.

FIFA 23 Premium Bronze Pack
Premium Bronze Pack

What about other packs and special cards? As of now, there are only these three packs in the FIFA 23 Web App – and a preview version of the Premium Gold Pack. However, it can be assumed that various other promo packs will be added. These will then have different probabilities.

In addition, more special cards will be added over time. These also get their own probability values.

Are packs worth it? If you compare the values ​​of previous years with those of this year, you quickly realize that the chance of popular top cards is a little lower.

Whether you want to spend your coins on packs or even invest real money in the game is up to you. However, if you look at this year’s probabilities, it quickly becomes clear that you shouldn’t hope for high player ratings with the packs. As a rule, the investment will not be worthwhile.

It usually makes more sense to only get packs in a playful way – as a reward from modes such as Rivals, Squad Battles, Champions and more. You should then rather use coins on the transfer market and buy the players you need directly there – instead of hoping for luck.

The exception is the preview pack: Here you can see every day what content is actually in it. So here you don’t run the risk of getting something that isn’t worth it.

What is your experience with packs in FIFA 23? Let’s find out in the comments!

If you want to know everything about the companion app for FIFA 23, we have just the thing for you:

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